The Weekly Brief
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Restaurant Demand Slows
Consumer services are under increasing pressure as impacts from monetary policy continue to reverberate throughout the economy.
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Delinquency Rates Up
Delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are rising—in some cases approaching 2008 levels.
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Job Growth Cools
We are seeing the employment picture respond more and more to rate hikes which could pose potential risks to the soft-landing scenario.
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Stock Buybacks Declining
The higher cost of capital is putting downward pressure on buybacks.
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Elevated P/E Ratios
S&P500 returns have been driven almost entirely by seven stocks, and these stocks have become more and more overvalued.
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Rates to Stay High
Markets are currently pricing that the Fed funds rate will bottom at 4% in 2025 and start rising again from there.
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S&P500 Bifurcation
The seven biggest stocks in the S&P500 are up more than 50%, while the remaining 493 are basically flat.
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S&P500 Bifurcation
The seven biggest stocks in the S&P500 are up more than 50%, while the remaining 493 are basically flat.
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S&P500 Bifurcation
The seven biggest stocks in the S&P500 are up more than 50%, while the remaining 493 are basically flat.