Since our last edition of the Weekly Brief, we’ve had one critical piece of data: the August employment report. It showed that the US economy generated 187,000 jobs with downward revisions for June and July. These numbers represent a continued cooling in employment growth as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Looking ahead, the consensus is expecting the slowdown in employment to continue into at least the first quarter of 2024, potentially dipping down to as low as 12,000 jobs created per month by March. This is an important downside risk that we are closely watching as the Fed continues its ongoing work to lower inflation.
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