This new Fed paper looks at the sources of inflation and finds that demand factors are responsible for only one-third of the increase in inflation. With supply disruptions easing, we should, over the coming months, begin to see a meaningful decline in inflation even if aggregate demand remains solid. Note also in their chart below how demand-driven inflation (=the blue bar) has already peaked. This is very important for credit and equities because what we are waiting for in markets is for inflation to start to decline from its current peak at 8.6%.
Fed: How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?
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