Inflation Forecasts

Apollo Chief Economist

Inflation will be coming down over the coming quarters. This is what the Fed is predicting, that is what the consensus is expecting, and that is what we are predicting. The problem is that this has been the forecast ever since inflation started going up in April 2021, see chart below. Given how systematically wrong inflation forecasts have been over the past 18 months, there are good reasons to be cautious about the current forecast.

The consensus has been systematically wrong about inflation coming down
Source: Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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