The first chart below shows that there are currently 11.5 million job openings and 6 million unemployed. The second chart shows that in leisure and hospitality there are more than two job openings per unemployed. The last graph shows that most job openings are in small firms with less than 250 employees. This data points to an overheated labor market with significant upward wage pressure. With this backdrop, the Fed will continue to push up short rates and long rates (via QT) to cool down labor demand, and it could take several quarters before the labor market cools enough for the Fed to turn less hawkish.
