Market Expectations to Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ

Apollo Chief Economist

The chart below shows that we will end up with higher peak yields in the US and UK than in Europe and Japan.

The chart also shows that the Fed is closer to done than the BoE and the ECB.

The bottom line is that current market pricing says that for the Fed and the BoE, most of the work is done with raising rates.

The ECB is only halfway there. And with core inflation in Japan at 0.9%, the inflation problem in Japan is much smaller than in other OECD countries, which gives the BoJ plenty of room to continue with YCC.

Chart showing higher yields in the US and the UK compared with Europe and Japan
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Market pricing based on OIS curve and a 3-year forecast period.

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