Outlook for Regional Banks

Apollo Chief Economist

Our weekly banking sector chart book is available here, key charts below:

1.) Since the Fed started hiking rates, deposits in banks have declined by $800bn, and assets in money market accounts have increased by $600bn, see the first two charts below.

2.) The share of households using mobile banking or online banking increased from 39% in 2013 to 66% in 2021, which has made it possible to move money in and out of bank accounts more quickly, see the third chart.

3.) Capital markets, including IG issuance and HY issuance, have, over the past week, started to slowly come back, see the fourth and fifth charts, but stresses remain in bank funding markets with the FRA-OIS spread still elevated, see the sixth chart.

$800bn in deposits have left banks since the Fed began to raise interest rates, the biggest outflow on record
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: March data as of March 22, 2023. Peak is defined as the month before monthly outflows turn negative.
$600bn inflows into money market funds during this Fed hiking cycle
Source: FRB, ICI, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Primary method of bank account access: More and more households use mobile and online banking
Source: FDIC, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: The data shows the sum of households using mobile and online banking, some respondents may use both.
US capital markets slowly starting to come back after SVB went under
Source: Pitchbook LCD, S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. (Note: Jan-Feb number is the average of the sum of those two months.)
IG and HY primary issuance slowly coming back
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Data from NIM <GO>, IG excludes government and financials issuance.
Banking funding costs remain high: FRA-OIS spread remains elevated
Source: Bloomberg. Note: Ticker used is USFOSC1 BGN Currency. As of March 31, 2023.

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