The Conference Board consumer confidence survey for February shows a big jump in the share of consumers who are worried about fewer jobs being available, see the first chart below.
Total employment in the US economy is about 160 million. With 3 million federal employees potentially worrying about their jobs and 6 million federal contractors worrying about their jobs, the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.
We remain bullish on the economic outlook, but we are very carefully watching the incoming data for signs if this is an inflection point for the business cycle.
On Saturday, we will be publishing our usual daily and weekly indicators for the US economy to monitor if the weakness in sentiment seen in the charts below is starting to show up in actual spending decisions for consumers and firms.
Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
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