Slowdown Watch

Apollo Chief Economist

The number of people going to Broadway shows is rising, and the gap to 2019 continues to close, see chart below. Household balance sheets remain strong, job growth is still strong, and wage growth is strong, and indicators for air travel, hotel occupancy rates, restaurant bookings, and concerts continue to show that the consumer services sector is red hot, see also our attached PDF with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy.

The Fed is raising interest rates to slow down growth, and so far, it is only the interest-rate sensitive components of GDP (housing, autos, capex) that are responding. The services sector makes up 80% of GDP, and it is not yet showing signs of slowing down.

Chart showing plenty of people are still going to Broadway shows, a sign that the services sector is not slowing down despite Fed actions
Source: Internet Broadway Database, Apollo Chief Economist

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