There are some very early signs that the economy is starting to cool down, with layoffs rising in startups and some housing indicators starting to roll over from high levels. But the big picture remains that high-frequency indicators show that the economy is still strong. Most noteworthy this week was the decline in jobless claims. The solid data is consistent with the consensus expectation of nonfarm payrolls coming in at 330K next week and the unemployment rate falling from 3.6% to 3.5%.
Looking ahead, with the virus subsiding, we should begin to see a shift away from goods toward services. The chart below shows that this shift has not started yet. The surprise has been that consumer goods spending has continued to be so strong. But with more people flying, eating at restaurants, staying at hotels, and going to amusement parks, we should over the coming quarters see growth in consumer services accelerate, and spending on consumer goods begin to slow down.
The trading implication for equity and credit markets is to be long consumer services and short consumer goods. For the Fed the implication is that rate hikes continue. Read our slowdown chart book.
This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.
Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.
Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.