Our weekly slowdown watch PDF is available here, and the incoming data continues to point to an overheating economy, with core PCE inflation in August rising to 4.9% and weekly jobless claims falling to levels not seen since April, see chart below. The interest rate sensitive goods sector of the economy is slowing down, including housing and autos, but the service sector, including restaurants, airline traffic, hotels, concerts, and sporting events, is not showing signs of slowing down. The bottom line is that more Fed hikes are needed to cool down the economy to get inflation back to 2%.
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