The market is pricing that the Fed will begin to cut rates in the first quarter of 2023, and I think that view is correct. With inflation expectations well-anchored the Fed doesn’t need to keep the Fed funds rate elevated for several years the way it did in the early 1980s, see chart below. With reference to the dual mandate, the Fed will later this year begin to talk about how the downside risks to growth are intensifying, and those recession risks will ultimately outweigh the shrinking upside risks to inflation.
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