To get a sustained rally in credit markets and stock markets, we need to see:
1) evidence that inflation is coming down for 2-3 months from its current peak at almost 9%, and
2) evidence that we will have a soft landing and not a hard landing.
Stock markets and credit markets will continue to sell off and volatility will remain high as long as there is uncertainty about when inflation will start to decline and whether we will have a recession or not.
We discuss this outlook in this PDF, in our latest podcast on Spotify, and my Monday morning 5-minute Weekly Brief videos.
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