When the facts change, my view changes. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions, see chart below. Small banks account for 30% of all loans in the US economy, and regional and community banks are likely to now spend several quarters repairing their balance sheets. This likely means much tighter lending standards for firms and households even if the Fed would start cutting rates later this year. With the regional banks playing a key role in US credit extension, the Fed will not raise interest rates next week, and we have likely seen the peak in both short and long rates during this cycle.
Financial Conditions Modestly Tighter
The Bloomberg measure of financial conditions consists of the S&P500, VIX, money market spreads, and credit spreads, and looking at what financial conditions have done since last Thursday shows a tightening, see chart below. But the tightening in financial conditions is relatively limited compared to the tightening seen in 2008 and 2020, and not big enough to generate a sharp slowdown in the economy or in inflation.
US Housing Less Sensitive to Rising Interest Rates
Sixty percent of all mortgages outstanding were issued in the past four years at much lower mortgage rates than today, making the US housing market less vulnerable to rising interest rates than in other countries, see chart below. The implication for markets is that the Fed may have to raise interest rates more to get housing inflation under control and get overall inflation back to the FOMC’s 2% inflation target.
Labor Market Holds Strong
Last week’s employment report revealed that 311,000 jobs were created in February—mainly in the service sector. That is far below the 517,000 jobs created in January, but above what the consensus was expecting. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate went up from 3.4% to 3.6%. Taken together, this was a reasonably strong jobs report, but with some signs of cooling. This week, importantly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February will be released. The consensus expects headline inflation to drop to 6.0% (down from 6.4% the month prior). With solid job growth and inflation still far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, the central bank will likely continue to raise interest rates for longer. In other words, the no landing scenario continues.
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Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.
Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.
Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.
International Travel Plans at the Highest Level Since the 1960s
The Conference Board asks US households about their travel plans, and the latest survey from February shows an all-time high in vacation plans to a foreign country, see chart below. The US consumer is showing no signs of slowing down spending on consumer services such as spending on restaurants, hotels, and air travel, see also our chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy here.
Immigration Playing a Key Role in the Labor Market
Immigration is likely the main reason the labor market is gradually moving from very overheated to less overheated.
Over the past 2½ years, immigration into the US labor market has increased by 4 million workers, and the working age immigrant population is now back at its pre-pandemic trend, see chart below. This number can be compared with the 4 million people in the US who are out of work because of long covid, see also this Brookings paper.
High immigration contributes not only to strong job growth, including in leisure and hospitality, but also to limiting the upside pressure on wages, see the second chart.
The bottom line is that high immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labor market and slow down inflation.
Our employment outlook chart book is available here.
European Private Debt Investing: Dislocation Creates Opportunity Today
Macro-economic headwinds have caused liquidity to dry up in European credit markets, leaving corporate borrowers and private-equity sponsors few options to turn to for financing. But we believe this environment has created an opportunity for private direct lenders to step in and benefit from an attractive opportunity.
Key Takeaways
- Europe is facing disruptions from geopolitical tensions, high inflation, economic uncertainty, and tightening monetary conditions—all of which have largely obstructed financing to large, mid, and small borrowers. Combined with secular shifts—such as the retrenchment of banks and the growth of private equity—these conditions can create an opportunity for private lenders to finance companies directly.
- Direct lending differs from traditional means of financing, such as broadly syndicated loans and high-yield bonds. It can offer many borrowers a source of capital with benefits (e.g., customization, flexibility, certainty of closing, speed, and a partnership with the lender). Direct lending also can offer lenders key structural protections and the ability to charge premiums.
- For investors that can allocate portions of their portfolio in illiquid assets, direct lending may provide rising income streams, inflation protection, enhanced diversification, and opportunities for potential alpha compared with traditional fixed-income investments.
- Investors may have underused private credit investments in their portfolios amid more than a decade of low interest rates, but the environment has changed. We believe that European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hikes, current dislocations in Europe, and subsequent volatility have coalesced to create a compelling entry point today, an opportunity underpinned by the confluence of strong secular changes in favor of private credit.
The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.
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The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.
Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.
Additional information may be available upon request.
Credit Card Debt Declining as a Share of Income
Credit card debt outstanding has been increasing because of high inflation and the economy reopening, but the increase in household incomes has been faster. The net result is that credit card debt is declining as a share of income, see chart below. Combined with strong job growth, solid wage growth, and high excess savings, the bottom line is that the US consumer is in good shape, and there are no signs this is about to change anytime soon.
Credit Market Outlook
Our latest credit market outlook is available here, highlights include (see charts below):
– Fewer and fewer high yield bonds are being traded, currently at the lowest levels in decades relative to IG
– IG spreads remain tight despite rising Fed uncertainty
– 92% of IG bonds outstanding trade below par
– 15% of high yield bonds trade with a yield higher than 10%
– Retail investors have in recent weeks been selling IG and HY, and put volumes on IG and HY ETFs remain very elevated
– Corporate leverage has been declining since the pandemic
– IG and HY index durations are coming down; i.e. credit is becoming less sensitive to rising rates
– Measures of bond market liquidity show liquidity is much worse in UK bond markets than in the US, EU, and Germany
– Default rates on credit cards and auto loans are normalizing to pre-pandemic levels
Nonfarm Payrolls for February
The consensus expects nonfarm payrolls on Friday to come in at 225,000, but recent readings for the employment components of ISM suggest there are some upside risks to that forecast, see chart below.