The data this week shows that the economy remains strong.
Consumers are in good shape, and year-over-year retail sales show steady growth, see the first chart below. Capex spending plans are improving, see the second chart, and the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for first quarter GDP and the Dallas Fed weekly estimate for GDP are at 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, see the third and fourth chart.
We are carefully monitoring trade war uncertainty, but so far, there are no signs that it is having a negative impact on the incoming data, see the fifth chart.
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Business Roundtable; NFIB; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Dallas, New York, Kansas, and Richmond; Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: PolicyUncertainty.com, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
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