Inflation Persistence

Last week’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment data was better than expected, with consumer sentiment reaching its highest level in a year. In the week ahead, we will be closely tracking the release of January’s inflation numbers. The consensus expects headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to fall slightly to 6.2% from 6.5% the month prior. We have seen a slow, steady decline in inflation—but we remain far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. With economic data holding relatively strong and inflation only gradually ticking down, the risks are rising that inflation may become stickier and more persistent. This may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates more and keep them higher for longer.


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