Last week, we learned that both headline and core CPI inflation fell slightly in April, but still remain far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. There has been progress made with getting inflation from 9% to 5%, but much work remains to get it from 5% to 2%. That will likely require a slowdown in wage inflation as well as housing. Broadly speaking, the economy is starting to slow. In fact, recent data from the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index shows that both expectations and current demand are falling after several months of strength. We’re carefully monitoring for evidence of softening in the consumer services side of the economy. In that context, this is an indicator that should be getting some attention.
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