The main message from June’s employment report released on Friday is that the US economy is gradually slowing down. However, it’s still not happening at the pace needed to get inflation under control. In fact, we’re actually seeing a pickup in wage inflation for certain occupations. This week, the consensus expects core CPI inflation to come in at 5%, which is far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Against this backdrop, we can expect the Fed to keep rates elevated for the foreseeable future, which could raise the risk of a hard landing.
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