Fed measures of financial conditions show that Fed hikes since March 2022 have been offset by a rising S&P500, tighter IG spreads, and tighter HY spreads, and overall financial conditions are now as easy as they were before the Fed started raising interest rates, see charts below.
With inflation still in the 4% to 6% range, the risks are rising that easy financial conditions will boost consumer spending, capex spending, and ultimately inflation. In other words, it looks like more Fed hikes are needed to get inflation all the way back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
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