Surveys of firms show that companies have in recent weeks started to pull back capex plans, and consumers are getting more worried about their jobs, see the first two charts below. At the same time, leading indicators point to higher inflation ahead, see the third chart.
Furthermore, airlines this week reported a slowdown in bookings, and the latest credit card data points to broad-based weakness across all categories except online sales.
The bottom line is that the soft data points to weakness coming in the hard data.In addition, this past week was the survey week for the March employment report, and with uncertainty elevated, the downside risks to March nonfarm payrolls—when it is released on Friday, April 4—are significant.
Our updated chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy is available here.
Sources: Apollo Chief Economist, Business Roundtable, NFIB, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas, New York, Philadelphia, and RichmondSources: Apollo Chief Economist, Conference Board, Haver AnalyticsSources: Apollo Chief Economist, BEA, FRBNY, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond
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