We’re still in an overheated economy, but we’re less overheated than we were a few months ago with slowdowns happening in the labor market and in manufacturing. In the week ahead, we’ll be tracking the release of PCE inflation data for May. The consensus is expecting core inflation to come in at 4.7%—the same level as the month prior. In broad terms, housing makes up over 40% of consumer spending, so it’s important when tracking inflation to monitor whether home prices are going up or down. If home prices rise, and the housing market continues to rebound, that could put upward pressure on inflation—potentially putting the Federal Reserve in a position to raise interest rates for longer to get inflation under control.
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