Last week we learned that the US economy created 263,000 jobs in November, that the unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%, and that wage growth was a little higher than expected at 5.1%. The most jobs created in November came in Leisure and Hospitality (88,000), Healthcare and Social Assistance (68,000), and Government (42,000). Taken together, this data suggests that the US economy is still holding strong—particularly on the labor front. The conclusion this week is that despite a strong November jobs report, the economy is starting to show signs of slowing—especially in areas like housing and auto sales—but it’s not slowing as quickly as the Fed would like. Given that, we expect the central bank to raise rates by 50 basis points at their next meeting.
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