Inflation Expectations Becoming Unanchored

Apollo Chief Economist

There is a major gap opening up between the mean and the median of long-term inflation expectations, which means that half of the population has long-term inflation expectations that are dramatically higher than the other half, see charts below and in this chart book. This is a very significant challenge for the Fed because it cannot cut interest rates when inflation expectations are out of control.

Inflation expectations: Big difference between median and mean
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Lower income households have higher inflation expectations
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Inflation expectations across education levels
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Inflation expectations rising across age groups
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Inflation expectations rising across regions
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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