Incoming data continues to point to an overheating economy. Last week, we learned that core PCE inflation in August rose to 4.9% (up from 4.6% the month prior and slightly above the 4.7% markets were expecting). This week, we will be closely monitoring Friday’s release of the September employment report. The consensus expects non-farm payrolls to come in at 250,000 jobs created, which would be a deceleration from the month before, but still a very strong number when viewed against current demographics. At the same time, weekly jobless claims continue to decline at a steady and consistent clip—meaning fewer people are applying for unemployment benefits. The bottom line remains that more Fed rate hikes are needed to cool the economy to get inflation closer to the central bank’s 2% target.
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