Outlook for Regional Banks

Apollo Chief Economist

The Fed started raising rates last year, and credit growth continues to slow and credit conditions continue to deteriorate, which is what should be expected as the Fed tightens policy and continues to cool down the economy and inflation. This transmission of monetary policy will continue to drag down the economic data over the coming 12 to 18 months, see charts below and this presentation.

Source: Banking Conditions Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Data were collected May 2–10, and 67 financial institutions responded to the survey headquartered in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Conference Board, FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: NFIB, FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Unweighted average spreads of bonds from ICE 5-10 Year US Banking Index, C6PX Index for bonds issued before 1st Jan 2023. There are 8 banks in the Regional index and 41 banks in the Diversified index, and Regional banks include BankUnited, Citizens Financial, Huntington, and Zions, and Diversified banks include JP Morgan, Citibank, and Bank of America.
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: FRBNY, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: The data shows the average probability of not being able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months for people earning (income) greater than $100K.
Source: FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. X-axis represents weeks of year.
Source: FDIC, Apollo Chief Economist. Data as of Q3 2022.
Source: Census, Apollo Chief Economist

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