A paradigm shift happened in 2022, as the Fed ended years of loose money. Massive asset-price dislocation has created distressed, buyout, and carve-out opportunities for PE investors. But we believe these opportunities will now be more difficult to exploit. We discuss a framework that can generate sustainable potential alpha in the long run.

Key Takeaways

• A paradigm shift happened in 2002, as the Fed ended almost 15 years of loose monetary policy. Private equity has weathered the ensuing financial storm well on a relative basis. But we see both short- and long-term implications of this paradigm change on PE investing.
• In the short- and medium-run, the extensive dislocation in asset prices has rendered capital structures of many corporations inadequate for the new economic environment. We expect many will be forced to de-lever.
• As a result, we see opportunities in distressed situations as well as strong potential for take-private and carve-outs, as companies will be compelled to seek a buyer or divest non-core assets to shore up their balance sheets.
• Relative to other asset classes, PE tends to outperform in times of volatility, and some of the best private equity vintages have emerged during economic and market downturns. Selectivity, however, is paramount.
• The consequences of the paradigm shift for the long run are also key. With tailwinds of steadily rising multiples removed, opportunities in PE will likely become more difficult to exploit. We discuss a framework that can generate sustainable potential alpha in PE investments.

The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.

Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (“S&P 500”) Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies by market value.

Additional information may be available upon request.