Based on data from retail sales and jobless claims from last week, we continue to see a gradual slowdown in the economy. This week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from their last meeting, and we’ll be looking for signals around why they recently chose to raise rates and what that could mean for their decisions ahead. The consensus is expecting a recession. In this edition of the Weekly Brief, we look back at prior recessions and how they compare to the current market environment. What we’re likely going to see in the coming months is a correction coming not as much in the economy, but in asset prices as the Fed continues to deflate the bubble it created due to 15 years of global easy money. A mild economic recession with a big recession in asset prices is what we call a non-recession recession.
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