The JOLTS data shows that layoffs are currently at record-low levels, see the first chart.
The Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey of job cut announcements shows that job cuts are at record-low levels, see the second chart.
WARN notices are trending down, suggesting that initial jobless claims will decline over the coming months, see the third chart.
The bottom line is that the rise in the unemployment rate is not driven by people getting fired.
Put differently, we are not in a recession, and it is debatable if the labor market is softening.
In short, the economy is doing just fine, and that is good for consumer spending, capex spending, and corporate earnings. There is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates four times this year. In fact, cutting interest rates too aggressively runs the risk of triggering another run-up in inflation.
Our latest chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy is available here.
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief EconomistNote: The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act helps ensure 60 to 90 days advance notice in cases of qualified plant closings and mass layoffs. WARN factor is the Cleveland Fed estimate for WARN notices (https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/working-paper/wp-2003r-advance-layoff-notices-and-aggregate-job-loss). Source: Department of Labor, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Apollo Chief Economist
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