Survey response rates for employment and inflation have declined significantly during the pandemic, and this is introducing substantial measurement errors and uncertainty, see chart below. One such example is the widening gap between the establishment survey and the household survey in the employment report, with the establishment survey showing 2.6 mn jobs created over the past eight months and the household survey showing no job growth over the same period. Whether the economy created no jobs or 2.6mn jobs over the past eight months is obviously extremely important for the Fed and financial markets.
Source: BLS, Apollo Chief Economist
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