The S&P 500 is up 25% since the November FOMC meeting. That is a $10.9 trillion increase in the market cap of the S&P 500 in five months.
Similarly, with lower rates and tighter credit spreads, the market cap of the US bond market is up $2.6 trillion. That’s a total increase in wealth since the Fed pivot of $13.5 trillion. For comparison, US consumer spending in 2023 was $19 trillion.
Combined with higher home prices and higher bitcoin prices, the bottom line is that the wealth gain experienced for US households since the Fed pivot is at least 70% of consumer spending, and this is going to be a strong tailwind for private consumption over the coming quarters.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Indices used are WCAUUS Index and LC07TRUU Index.
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