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The JOLTS data shows that layoffs are currently at record-low levels, see the first chart.
The Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey of job cut announcements shows that job cuts are at record-low levels, see the second chart.
WARN notices are trending down, suggesting that initial jobless claims will decline over the coming months, see the third chart.
The bottom line is that the rise in the unemployment rate is not driven by people getting fired.
Put differently, we are not in a recession, and it is debatable if the labor market is softening.
In short, the economy is doing just fine, and that is good for consumer spending, capex spending, and corporate earnings. There is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates four times this year. In fact, cutting interest rates too aggressively runs the risk of triggering another run-up in inflation.
Our latest chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy is available here.
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act helps ensure 60 to 90 days advance notice in cases of qualified plant closings and mass layoffs. WARN factor is the Cleveland Fed estimate for WARN notices (https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/working-paper/wp-2003r-advance-layoff-notices-and-aggregate-job-loss). Source: Department of Labor, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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During the pandemic, many new businesses were created, see the first chart below. But the new businesses created were different. They were created by individuals rather than corporations, and they were smaller and less likely to hire a lot of people, see the second and third chart.
The bottom line is that business dynamics changed during Covid, with more one-person businesses opening since 2020. This is likely why the BLS overestimated employment in the birth/death model, which looks back five years and adjusts the total employment numbers for how many new businesses have opened and how many people work at these new businesses.
In other words, new businesses created are smaller and have fewer workers. The sector distribution seems to be fairly even and a lot of these businesses happen to be in Florida, see the fourth and fifth chart.
The implication for markets is that employment growth going forward will be lower because of an increase in the share of new businesses with fewer workers.
For more, see our chart book available here on these changing business dynamics.
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: High-propensity businesses are those that have a higher likelihood of becoming businesses with employees and payroll capabilities, and include those that: Define themselves as a corporate entity, indicate a plan to hire employees, have a date for providing first wages and planned wages, have been given a NAICS industry code that aligns with accommodation and food services, construction, manufacturing, retail, professional, scientific or technical services, educational services and healthcare.
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Data for 2022. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The share of Italian government bonds held by non-residents has increased over the past year, see chart below.
Source: Bank of Italy, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Monetary Financial Institutions include banks, money market funds and ECB. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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During the pandemic, households increased spending on goods because they were shopping online, and services spending was lowered because they couldn’t go to restaurants and travel.
The chart below shows that consumers have significantly increased spending on services over the past two years, and the current share at 68% is now close to pre-pandemic levels.
The bottom line is that we are getting to the end of the catch-up effect for companies in the consumer services industry.
Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Population growth in China has now turned negative. This is important because a growing labor force used to be a strong driver of growth in China. Combined with falling home prices and ongoing trade wars with Europe and the US, the headwinds to growth in China are intensifying. One implication for markets is continued downward pressure on commodity prices.
Source: CNBS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Natural population growth shown. Natural population growth = (birth rate – death rate) * total population. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Small business optimism is at the same level as when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022, see chart below. This is not a recession. If anything, this suggests the economy is reaccelerating.
Source: NFIB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The financial system is changing.
First, banks are changing, and debanking continues, partly because of banks’ maturity mismatch when using deposits to finance long-term lending and partly because of ongoing changes to market liquidity and market making.
Second, how firms and consumers borrow is changing, with private credit playing a bigger role, and an increased realization that long-term assets such as investments in AI and energy should be matched with long-term liabilities.
Third, how households save for retirement is changing with passive investing growing, democratization of alternatives, and an increased recognition that parts of the 60/40 portfolio invested in highly liquid public markets can be replaced with private fixed income and private equity both for households and institutional investors.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Looking at the latest daily and weekly data shows that retail sales are strong, jobless claims are falling, restaurant bookings are strong, air travel is strong, hotel occupancy rates are high, bank credit growth is accelerating, bankruptcy filings are trending lower, credit card spending is solid, and Broadway show attendance and box office grosses are strong. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third quarter GDP is 2.4%, and the Dallas Fed weekly GDP indicator is 2.3%. Finally, we added a new chart with state-level GDP for New York, California, and Texas, which also shows continued strength, see below. The bottom line is that there are no signs of a recession in the incoming data, see also our chart book with daily and weekly data available here.
Source: Baumeister, Christiane, Danilo Leiva-Leon, and Eric Sims (2024), “Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 106(2), 483-504., Apollo Chief Economist. Note: The economic conditions indices are computed with mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. The indices are scaled to 4-quarter growth rates of US real GDP and normalized such that a value of zero indicates national long-run growth. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The argument for buying distressed commercial real estate today is that interest rates are about to come down. But if interest rates come down because of a recession, then buying distressed CRE today is not a good idea. If the economy starts to slow down more meaningfully, as the consensus expects, the problems for rental housing, multifamily, and warehouses will get a lot worse.
Source: Moody’s, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Central banks are buying more gold, see charts below.
Source: World Gold Council, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: World Gold Council, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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