Want it delivered daily to your inbox?
-
Having a flexible labor market where it is easy to hire and fire workers increases potential growth and resilience to shocks. The US has the most flexible labor market among all OECD countries, see the chart below.
Source: OECD, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: The OECD indicators of employment protection are synthetic indicators of the strictness of regulation on dismissals and the use of temporary contracts. For each year, indicators refer to regulation in force on the first of January. Strictness of employment protection against individual and collective dismissals for workers with a regular contract is the weighted sum of sub-indicators concerning the regulations for individual dismissals (weight of 5/7) and provisions for collective dismissals (2/7). It incorporates 23 detailed data items. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
After the Fed pivot in November 2023, lower mortgage rates, rising stock prices, and increased activity in capital markets have put upward pressure on rents in Manhattan, see the first chart below.
Over the same period, easy financial conditions have boosted the housing market, with home prices currently up 7.3% over the past 12 months.
With this backdrop, the risks are rising that shelter inflation may begin to flatten out over the coming months and maybe even rise later this year, see the second chart.
The Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer to prevent housing inflation from becoming a problem again.
Source: Elliman, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Haver Analytics, BLS, S&P, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Weekly data for consumer spending continues to show no signs of a slowdown in private consumption, see chart below.
Source: Redbook, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Most of the time in financial markets is spent on discussing Apple, Tesla, and Coca-Cola, but these firms and the rest of the S&P 500 companies only make up a very small part of the US economy, see our chart book available here.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Copper prices are rising due to supply shortages, hedge fund speculation, China demand, AI demand, and green energy demand. For more, see our chart book available here.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
The share of the population that owns their home varies across the G7 countries, with a homeownership rate in Germany at 41%, in the US at 65%, and in Italy 73%, see chart below.
Source: OECD, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: 2022 or latest year available. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
In Japan, the population is shrinking, and, as a result, the number of vacant homes is rising, see chart below.
Source: UN Population Statistics, Housing and Land Survey Japan, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
Household expectations to future home price appreciation are currently at the highest level since 2007, see chart below.
Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
US markets continue to outperform international markets, and the market cap of the S&P 500 is currently the biggest share of the global market cap in decades, see chart below.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
-
The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is weaker because a rising share of US homes don’t have a mortgage, and about half of all mortgages have an interest rate locked in below 4%, see charts below.
Source: US Census Bureau, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: FHFA, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).
Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.
Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo.
Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.