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The US growth outlook is decoupling from the European growth outlook driven by more expansive US fiscal policy and easier financial conditions triggered by the November 1 Fed pivot, where the central bank started talking about cuts instead of hikes, see chart below. As a result, the Treasury-Bund spread will likely continue to widen, and the dollar will likely continue to increase, both against the euro and the yen.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Our chart book that looks at why gold prices are going up is available here.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: China customs, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. OER stands for owners’ equivalent rent of residences. 
Source: Bloomberg, policyuncertainty.com, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Most of the time in financial markets goes with talking about the S&P 500.
But public markets and public companies are only a small part of the economy.
Total global employment in the S&P 500 companies is 29 million, and total employment in the US economy is 158 million, see chart below.
Put differently, more than 80% of total employment in the US economy is outside the S&P 500 companies.
This is consistent with our recent Daily Spark, in which we showed that 87% of firms in the US with revenue greater than $100 million are private.
The bottom line is that the vast majority of the US economy is in private markets.
Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Rising energy prices combined with the ongoing rebound in the manufacturing sector increase the likelihood that we could see an increase in goods inflation over the coming months, see chart below.
Source: BLS, ISM, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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In financial markets, a lot of conversations are about public companies, but the reality is that in Europe, 96% of firms with revenue greater than $100 million are private, see chart below.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater then $100 million by count. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Forty-eight percent of Americans have a passport, up from 3% in 1989, see chart below.
Source: US Department of State, Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Interest coverage ratios have rebounded for both investment grade credit and high yield credit. This was driven by continued strong earnings and also the Fed pivot last year, which triggered not only expectations of lower rates but also a strong rally in IG and HY spreads, see charts below.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Commodity prices are moving higher driven by the following:
1) Reaccelerating US growth
2) Geopolitical uncertainty
3) Segmentation of global trade, and
4) Strong AI demand for energy
Our latest outlook for energy prices, agriculture prices, and metals prices is available here.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The housing slowdown in China continues, see chart below.
Source: NBS China, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The Marshall Plan was 5% of US GDP, and the US fiscal response to Covid was 20% of US GDP, see chart below.
Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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