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  • The Share of Unauthorized Immigrants in Agriculture

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    USDA data shows that 42% of crop farmworkers are not authorized to work in the US, see chart below and here. A crop farmworker is an agricultural laborer who performs tasks involved in growing and harvesting crops like vegetables, fruits, grains, and nuts, including planting seeds, weeding, irrigating, harvesting, sorting, and packing the produce.

    USDA: 42% of crop farmworkers are unauthorized immiagrants
    Source: USDA, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Market Expecting Consumer Spending to Slow Down

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    The S&P 500 basket of stocks for consumer discretionary companies has declined significantly in recent weeks, suggesting that investors are starting to worry about future consumer spending on big-ticket items such as cars, washing machines, and mobile phones, see chart below.

    Divergence between consumer staples and consumer discretionary in recent weeks
    Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Median Rent in Manhattan Rising

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    Apartment rents in Manhattan have started to increase again, with the median rent reaching a record high of $4,471 in February, see chart below.

    Manhattan median rent rose to $4,471 in February 2025
    Sources: Elliman, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Households Running Out of Emergency Funds

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    Data from the Fed shows that households’ ability to come up with $2,000 for an emergency expense within the next month is at the lowest level since the survey started in Q4 of 2015. Taking into account that the CPI level today is 35% higher than in 2015, the situation is even worse.

    Probability of coming up with $2,000 over next month
    Sources: SCE, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Risk Rising of a Foreign Pullback from the S&P 500

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    There have been significant inflows from abroad into US equity markets, see the first chart below, and foreign investors are now significantly overweight US equities, see the second chart below. Combined with the dollar’s decline and the ongoing overvaluation of the Magnificent 7, see the third chart, the downside risks to the S&P 500 as a result of foreigners selling are significant.

    Significant rise in foreign holdings of US equities
    Sources: US Treasury, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    Foreigners hold a significant amount of US stocks and fixed income, and the composition of their holdings has changed dramatically since the financial crisis
    Note: Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    Top 10 S&P 500 Companies P/E Ratios
    Note: The Magnificent 7 consists of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Sharing the Benefits from Trade More Evenly

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    In 2023, the US had the lowest tariff levels in the world, lower than the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and China, see the first two charts below.

    The US also has fewer non-tariff barriers than China, Mexico, Canada, and many European countries, see the third chart below.

    When some countries have lower barriers to trade, the gains from trade are not distributed evenly, and the US is currently investigating tariffs and non-tariff barriers with individual countries. 

    The bottom line is that the purpose of the trade war is to create a more level playing field so that the benefits from trade are more evenly distributed, including to the US manufacturing sector.

    Average tariff rate, by country
    Data as of 2022. Sources: World Bank, Apollo Chief Economist
    2023: US had lower tariffs than Europe
    Sources: WTO, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    China has many more non-tariff barriers than the US and Germany
    Data as of 2024. Sources: OECD, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Work from Home Is Here to Stay

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    Household surveys, entry swipes, and location data show that work from home has become a new permanent feature of the labor market, with all indicators moving sideways since 2023, see charts below.

    Household surveys show that work from home is here to stay
    Source: US Census Bureau; WFH Research; Barrero, Jose Maria, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, 2021 – “Why working from home will stick,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 28731 (WFH Research | Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes); Apollo Chief Economist
    Office occupancy rates have stabilized around 55% of 2019 levels
    Note: Kastle Systems Back-to-Work Barometer is a weekly report that tracks office occupancy rates across 10 major US cities by analyzing aggregated and anonymized building access data. Source: Kastle Systems, Apollo Chief Economist
    Office visits compared to 2019 levels
    Note: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from over 700 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor. It does not include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial. Source: Placer.ai Blog Location Intelligence & Foot Traffic Blog, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Consumer Sentiment Deteriorating Rapidly

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    The March survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan shows the following:

    • Consumer sentiment is declining rapidly both for households making more than $100,000 and less than $100,000 (see the first chart).
    • Consumer worries about losing their jobs are at levels normally seen during recessions (see the second chart).
    • A record-high share of consumers think business conditions are worsening (see the third chart).
    • Households’ income expectations are declining (see the fourth chart).
    • Inflation expectations are rising at an unprecedented speed (see the fifth chart).

    The bottom line is that consumer sentiment is deteriorating at an alarming rate.

    Consumer sentiment declining across income groups
    Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    Consumers very worried about losing their jobs
    Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    Record-high share of consumers think business conditions are worsening
    Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
    Significant decline in household income expectations
    Source: University of Michigan, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
    Inflation expectations rising at unprecedented speed
    Source: University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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  • Hard Data Starting to Weaken

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    Surveys of firms show that companies have in recent weeks started to pull back capex plans, and consumers are getting more worried about their jobs, see the first two charts below. At the same time, leading indicators point to higher inflation ahead, see the third chart.

    Furthermore, airlines this week reported a slowdown in bookings, and the latest credit card data points to broad-based weakness across all categories except online sales.

    The bottom line is that the soft data points to weakness coming in the hard data. In addition, this past week was the survey week for the March employment report, and with uncertainty elevated, the downside risks to March nonfarm payrolls—when it is released on Friday, April 4—are significant.

    Our updated chart book with daily and weekly indicators for the US economy is available here.

    Sharp reversal in corporate capex spending plans in recent weeks
    Sources: Apollo Chief Economist, Business Roundtable, NFIB, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond
    Consumers getting more worried about their jobs
    Sources: Apollo Chief Economist, Conference Board, Haver Analytics
    Latest data points to upside risks to PCE inflation
    Sources: Apollo Chief Economist, BEA, FRBNY, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond

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  • The Most Common Age Group in the US, China, and Korea

    Torsten Sløk

    Apollo Chief Economist

    There are more 33-year-olds in the US than any other age group, see chart below.

    For China, there are more 54-year-olds, and for Korea, there are more 53-year-olds.

    The most common age group in the US is 33. In China, it is 54, and Korea, it is 53.
    Source: PopulationPyramid.net, Apollo Chief Economist

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