The Daily Spark

The Fed is in the process of cooling the economy down. The whole idea with raising interest rates is for us to buy fewer cars, spend less on our credit cards, and to build fewer factories.

The Fed’s ultimate goal is to get inflation back to their 2% inflation target. But with core PCE inflation currently at 3.9%, we are not there yet.

The desired slowing of the economy could come this Friday when we get the employment report for September.

The consensus expects 165,000 jobs in September, which is down from 400,000 jobs a year ago and 600,000 when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022.

What will happen in credit markets over the coming months once nonfarm payrolls finally move below the level consistent with population growth, namely, 100,000 jobs created each month?

Once nonfarm payrolls start moving below 100,000, credit spreads will widen because investors will take it as a sign that corporate earnings are about to slow down, see illustration below.

But with core PCE inflation at 3.9%, the Fed cannot turn dovish because it will look like the Fed no longer cares about inflation, which raises the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. As a result, the Fed will continue to be hawkish even as the unemployment rate starts moving higher.

Once the recession finally begins, the Fed can turn dovish and start to lower base rates. But the costs of capital will not decline because at that time corporate earnings will be slowing, and therefore, credit spreads will likely be widening further.

The bottom line is that even if we get weak data and the Fed, after a few soft prints in nonfarm payrolls, starts turning dovish, the costs of capital will move higher. In short, the Fed controls the base rate but doesn’t control credit spreads, and that is the reason why a soft landing is unlikely.

Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates. Growth in China is slowing for cyclical and structural reasons, and Chinese exports to the US are lower. As a result, China has fewer dollars to recycle into Treasuries. In fact, China has been selling $300 billion in Treasuries since 2021, and the pace of Chinese selling has been faster in recent months, see charts below and the presentation available here.

If slowing growth in China is a source of higher US rates—together with the US sovereign downgrade, Fed QT, Japan YCC exit, and rising US Treasury issuance—then a bad US employment report on Friday may not result in dramatically lower rates.

The bottom line is that the cost of capital will likely stay permanently higher for reasons that have little to do with the business cycle, and it was the period with essentially zero interest rates from 2008 to 2020 that was unusual.

Bad weather has pushed the price of orange juice to the highest level ever, see chart below.

Our updated banking sector chart book is available here.

There is something weird going on in US government bond markets, and the relentless increase in long-term interest rates is quite ominous for the economy, and perhaps also for financial stability. 

We are late in the cycle, and Fed hikes are biting harder and harder on consumers and firms. Stock markets see the negative effects of tighter monetary policy, and equities are trading lower. But long-term interest rates should be going down, not up.

So what is going on?

With the term premium accounting for the entire move in long rates since July, we know that the source of higher long-term interest rates is not Fed expectations.

If the move is not driven by changing Fed expectations, what are then the reasons why long rates are moving higher? There are several potential explanations:

1) First, with declining repo it could be an unwind of the basis trade that is pushing long rates higher, somewhat similar to what happened in March 2020. This has been getting a lot of attention, and maybe conditions for getting repo are tightening.

2) Another potential explanation is the slowing growth in China, which means that China is recycling fewer dollars into Treasuries because of declining Chinese exports.

3) Rates may also be moving higher because of the Fed still doing QT. Remember, the entire goal with QT is to put upward pressure on government bond yields.

4) The US budget deficit remains big at 6% of GDP, which requires more Treasury issuance today and in the future, and investors may be reacting to that.

5) The US sovereign downgrade has likely had a negative impact.

6) Japan exiting YCC has put upward pressure on JGB yields, which, despite high hedging costs, makes US yields less attractive.

7) There is a large stock of T-bills outstanding, and the Treasury intends over the next six months to increase auction sizes across the Treasury curve.

No matter which explanation is more important, it is clear that the spike in rates is having a very negative impact on consumers and firms, and the risks of a hard landing are intensifying.

For investors in the 60/40 portfolio, the ongoing volatility in a high rates environment is stomach-churning, see chart below. Over the past two months, the 60/40 portfolio has lost 5%, and with an outlook of high rates and slowing earnings—which is needed to get inflation under control—the outlook for the 60/40 portfolio remains negative.

There is $130 trillion in global fixed income outstanding, see chart below.

The total market cap of global equity markets is $101 trillion.

The total value of all assets in the global banking sector is $98 trillion.

And total global private capital AUM is $13 trillion.

The first conclusion is that private capital makes up less than 5% of global financing markets.

Over the past decade, global fixed income markets have increased $42 trillion, the global equity market cap has increased $35 trillion, global assets on banking sector balance sheets have increased by $34 trillion, and the global amount of private capital AUM has increased $8 trillion, see charts below.

The second conclusion is that private capital has over the past decade grown much slower than global financing markets.

The bottom line is that the alternatives industry is small, and has over the past decade grown much slower than the rest of the financial system.

Our latest outlook for private markets is available here.

The term premium is up one percentage point since late July, see chart below showing that the ongoing rise in long rates is driven less by changing Fed expectations and more by:

1) The US sovereign downgrade

2) Japan exiting YCC

3) Fed QT

4) Fewer dollars for China to recycle in a falling exports environment

5) The US budget deficit

6) The large stock of T-bills and the Treasury’s intention to increase auction sizes.

Looking ahead, the real risk to the economy, including financial stability, is if weak economic data doesn’t result in falling long-term interest rates. The Treasury market’s reaction to the employment report next week will be very important and likely set the tone for markets in Q4.

The last Fed hike was in July.

If this was the last Fed hike during this cycle, and assuming it takes on average eight months from the last Fed hike to the first Fed cut, then the Fed will start cutting rates in March 2024, see chart below.

The big difference today is that inflation remains significantly above the FOMC’s 2% target. This may lead the Fed to keep rates high, even if the economic data starts to slow down more meaningfully.

The index of VC-backed IPOs is down 50% since last year when the Fed started raising interest rates, see chart below.

Similarly, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Growth are down 10% and 20%, respectively.

With interest rates permanently higher, venture capital and growth will likely continue to underperform.

Consensus expectations show that the market is expecting Europe to be in stagflation in 2023 and in 2024, see charts below.

The classic textbook response to stagflation by the central bank is to keep interest rates high until inflation is under control and then wait for growth to eventually restart.

This is also what we should be expecting from the ECB. The implication for markets is high short rates and low growth in earnings.