The table below shows our estimates of the impact on US GDP and inflation of tariffs and the decline in consumer sentiment and corporate sentiment.
Whether we will have a recession or not depends on the duration of this shock. If these levels of tariffs stay in place for several months and other countries retaliate, it will cause a recession in the US and the rest of the world.
We will be discussing the outlook for the economy and markets on a conference call today at 9 am EDT, you can register here.
Note: Includes Chinese tariffs from February and March, Canada and Mexico non-USMCA compliant goods tariffs from March, Steel, Aluminum and Auto imports and reciprocal tariffs on all countries announced in April. Source: Apollo Chief Economist
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