Layoffs in tech are being offset by hiring in Health care, Leisure and hospitality, Manufacturing, and the Government, see the first chart below.
The second chart shows that job cut announcements have increased recently but remain at pre-pandemic levels.
The bottom line is that the Fed wants to slow down hiring, and they will eventually succeed, but the labor market is not slowing down fast enough.
Once the labor market starts slowing, then the Fed will pivot. But the slowdown in the economy could be so fast that the pivot would be associated with a sell-off in credit and equities.
In other words, the pre-condition for a Fed pivot is a weaker economy. But a weaker economy means lower corporate earnings. Which means that a Fed pivot could result in a stock market sell-off and wider credit spreads.
Source: BLS, Haver, Apollo Chief EconomistSource: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Inc, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
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