The Weekly Brief
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Hiring continues
The US economy is still holding strong—particularly on the labor front—so we expect the Fed to remain hawkish.
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Broadway is Back
US consumers are flocking to experiences and services thanks, in part, to strong wage growth and high levels of savings.
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Descending the Mountain
History tells us that there’s a risk of a second inflation mountain ahead if the Fed turns dovish too quickly.
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Rising Labor Costs
If both wage inflation and overall inflation are high, what does that mean for profit margins?
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Consumer Resilience
The overall economy is still relatively strong with consumer services in particular showing robust growth.
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Forecasting Inflation
Inflation remains stubbornly high and consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated its duration.
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When Will Inflation Clouds Clear?
With the Fed committed to lowering inflation, it’s not a question of if it will decline, it’s a question of when.
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Job Openings Drop
The number of job openings in the US is starting to fall, but the labor market remains tight.
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Jobless Claims Still Falling
The Fed would like to see softening in the labor market, but the data is telling a different story.