US Housing Outlook

Apollo Chief Economist

High mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand for housing.

But the inventory of new homes for sale remains very low.

Our latest outlook for the US housing market is available here, key charts inserted below.

US Housing Outlook
Why is housing still doing well despite higher mortgage rates?
Source: Apollo Chief Economist
30-year mortgage rates now at 7.5%
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Monthly mortgage payment on a new mortgage
Source: Bloomberg L.P., Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Calculation of monthly payment using the 30-year purchase loan application size and the 30-year effective rate.

Mortgage purchase applications very weak because of high mortgage rates
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Record-low number of homeowners are refinancing their mortgage at the moment
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Very low inventory of homes for sale
Source: Realtor.com, Apollo Chief Economist
Fewer people listing their home for sale at the moment
Source: Redfin, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Structural decline in the share of the US population moving to a new address
Source: Census CPS, Apollo Chief Economist

The total housing inventory per person continues to decline
Source: Census Bureau, FRED, Apollo Chief Economist

Traffic of prospective homebuyers negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates
Source: National Association of Homebuilders, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Higher mortgage rates also having a negative impact on homebuyer and homebuilder confidence
Source: University of Michigan, NAHB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Existing home sales negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates
Source: Census Bureau, NAR, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist. Forecast is Bloomberg consensus.
Fewer bidding wars recently because of higher mortgage rates
Source: NAR, Apollo Chief Economist
Inventory of expensive homes rising in recent months
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Home price inflation stabilizing
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
It currently takes 8 months on average to build a single-family house
Source: Census, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Single-family homes are one-unit buildings.
Median home sales price now $437K
Source: Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist


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