The daily data for the past week shows that restaurant bookings are still strong, TSA travel data is still strong, and tax withholding data is still strong.
The weekly data shows that jobless claims improved, weekly retail sales data is still strong, weekly hotel demand remains strong, weekly data for bank lending is growing, weekly data for bankruptcy filings is trending lower, weekly data for Broadway show attendance is strong, weekly box office grosses are strong, and weekly S&P 500 forward profit margins are near all-time highs.
There is some mild weakness in the weekly Census business formation statistics and the ASA temp worker staffing index.
Combined with the strong GDP report for the second quarter, the bottom line is that some pockets of weakness are emerging, but the high-frequency indicators show that overall growth remains solid. Consistent with the latest GDP report and the latest monthly report for retail sales.
Bottom line: There is nothing suggesting that the economy is currently in a recession or about to enter a recession.
Our chart book with daily and weekly indicators is available here.
Note: Data as of Saturday, July 27, 2024. Source: Apollo Chief Economist
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