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            More Than Half of Expenditures on Imports From China Stays in the US

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Home May 2023

Demand for Treasuries

As the Fed has been raising rates, US households have been big buyers of US Treasuries, see the first two charts below.

The appetite for Treasuries from foreigners has been more limited because of higher hedging costs. Foreigners have instead increased their holdings of equities by $3 trillion during the pandemic, see the third chart.

With a 5% budget deficit combined with QT and the Treasury’s need to replenish cash in the Treasury General Account, markets will soon begin to focus on who will be buyers of US government debt.

As the Fed has been raising rates, US households have been big buyers of US Treasuries
Source: FFUNDS, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Fed doing QT, domestic investors buying Treasuries
Source: FFUNDS, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Foreign ownership of US securities
Source: FRB, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist

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Restaurants Starting to Slow

Indicators of restaurant activity are starting to show signs of weakness, see charts below. This is important because consumer services have so far been quite strong.

Restaurant demand starting to slow down
Source: National Restaurant Association, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Restaurant bookings starting to slow down
Source: OpenTable, Apollo Chief Economist

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Auto Loan Delinquencies Rising

Auto loan transitions to serious delinquency are rising and approaching 2008 levels, in particular for younger borrowers, see chart below.

Auto loan transitions to serious delinquency approaching 2008 levels
Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Inflation Roots

Last week’s Federal Reserve minutes revealed that officials are starting to consider whether more rate hikes are needed to balance the pressures in the financial system against the risks of elevated inflation. But what are the root causes behind inflation staying so stubbornly high? The bottom line is that although supply chain problems may have helped to boost inflation initially, the current situation is the result of fiscal policy, not because of a decline in the capacity of the US economy.


This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others in whole or in part without the express consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).  

Apollo makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the speaker as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue.   

Statements made throughout this presentation are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and do not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information discussed during this presentation, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, product or service, including interest in any investment product or fund or account managed or advised by Apollo. 

Certain statements made throughout this presentation may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology.

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Working Hours in the US and Germany

The average number of working hours per year has for decades been declining in Germany and moving sideways in the US, see chart below.

Average hours per worker is trending down in Germany
Source: Penn World Tables, OECD, Apollo Chief Economist

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Supply Chains Are Back to Normal

Key supply chain indicators are now fully back at 2019 levels, see charts below and in this presentation.

Source: Freightos, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: WCI, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: The Marine Exchange of Los Angeles and Long Beach Harbors, Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Haver, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Haver, Apollo Chief Economist (Note: Average of unfilled orders is average of Richmond Fed Mfg Survey: Current Manufacturing Order Backlogs, Philly Fed Mfg Business Outlook: Current Unfilled Orders, Empire State Mfg Survey: Delivery Time)
Source: NY Fed, BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Is Inflation High Because of Demand or Supply?

There is an ongoing debate about whether the current high levels of inflation are the result of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy or supply chain problems and lower labor supply.

A straightforward way to analyze this question is to look at what happened to aggregate demand and aggregate supply during covid.

Demand: The size of the fiscal and monetary policy response to covid at $10trn was very significant, or about 40% of 2022 GDP, see the first chart. The magnitude of these numbers suggests that demand is playing a key role as a driver of inflation.

Supply: The CBO estimates that the covid shock, combined with the fiscal and monetary response, has increased the overall capacity of the US economy, see the second chart which shows that the CBO’s current estimate of potential GDP in 2023 is higher than the estimate for potential GDP in 2023 they had in 2019. In other words, the covid shock did not lower the capacity of the US economy.

The bottom line is that while supply chain problems initially boosted inflation, the current high level of inflation is the result of easy money and fiscal policy, not because of a decline in the capacity of the US economy.

Source: FRB, BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: CBO, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist

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Financial Well-Being

The Fed conducts an annual survey of the financial well-being of US households, and the latest survey shows that consumers are happy with their own finances. But they are unhappy with the national economy, which is consistent with households facing high inflation yet still have jobs and plenty of savings.

Source: FRB, Apollo Chief Economist

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Multi-Asset Credit: The Asset-Backed Finance Allocation

The securitization market has evolved since its birth in the 70s, with its latest transformation offering the potential for increased diversification, yield enhancement and downside protection for Multi-Asset-Credit. Now ABF is being taken private by new entrants shaking up the established order to the benefit of semi-liquid portfolios.

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Key Takeaways

  • While many people may not realize it, the Asset-Backed Finance (ABF) market is part of our daily life and is a critical source of financing for small and medium sized companies.
  • As banks have retrenched from the ABF market over the past decade, specialty lenders and private capital have filled the gap with innovative financing solutions.
  • Today, the ABF market spans a broad range of sectors and industries that represent a diversified opportunity set in credit and one that is bigger than the US corporate fixed income market.
  • An allocation to ABF may provide attractive benefits including portfolio diversification and yield enhancement as well as a possible hedge against inflation.
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The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information.


Important Disclosure Information

This presentation is for educational purposes only and should not be treated as research. This presentation may not be distributed, transmitted or otherwise communicated to others, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”).

The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are the views and opinions of the author(s) of the White Paper. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Further, Apollo and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this presentation. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be relied upon as such. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations will be achieved, and actual allocations may be significantly different than that shown here. This presentation does not constitute an offer of any service or product of Apollo. It is not an invitation by or on behalf of Apollo to any person to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy, and shall not form the basis of, nor may it accompany nor form part of, any right or contract to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Nothing herein should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Hyperlinks to third-party websites in this presentation are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. This presentation is not complete and the information contained herein may change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the presentation to account for such changes. Apollo has not made any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability therefore. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients.

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Outlook for Regional Banks

There are two downside risks to the outlook for the economy and markets.

The first is rates higher for longer because of sticky inflation driven by high wage inflation and the ongoing recovery in the housing market.

The second is the ongoing tightening in credit conditions with banks holding back lending.

We are carefully monitoring both of these risks.

Our banking sector outlook is available here.

Source: FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: Conference Board, FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Unweighted average spreads of bonds from ICE 5-10 Year US Banking Index, C6PX Index for bonds issued before 1st Jan 2023. There are 8 banks in the Regional index and 41 banks in the Diversified index, and Regional banks include BankUnited, Citizens Financial, Huntington, and Zions, and Diversified banks include JP Morgan, Citibank, and Bank of America.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: March data as of 10th May 2023. Peak is defined as the month before monthly outflows turn negative.
Source: FRB, ICI, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist

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