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Weekly data for GDP and same-store retail sales are showing no signs of a slowdown in the US economy, see charts below.
Sources: Redbook Research Inc., Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Not only are default rates trending lower, but the number of distressed exchanges has also started declining, see chart below.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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When discussing affordability, it is important to note that while the CPI price level has increased 26% since 2019, wages have increased 30%, see chart below.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Over the past six months, the yen has traded much weaker than interest rate differentials alone would suggest, indicating that growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal position in a rising rate environment are starting to dominate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Despite the turbulence surrounding Liberation Day in April, foreign investors ended up buying more US assets in 2025 than in 2024, see chart below.
Note: 2025 data is annualized. Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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AI-related companies now represent an increasing share of investment-grade indexes, see chart below.
Sources: PitchBook, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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With a steep yield curve, governments are issuing more short‑dated paper to minimize debt‑servicing costs. As a result, the average maturity of the sovereign bond index is declining rapidly, see chart below.
The consequence is that monetary and fiscal policy have become more tightly linked, because a lower maturity makes government interest expenses more sensitive to central bank rate decisions.
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Germany’s exports to China have declined relative to GDP, while China’s exports to Germany have remained stable relative to GDP, see chart below.
Sources: German Federal Statistics Office (Statistisches Bundesamt), Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
Note: The Daily Spark will resume on December 26.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Fiscal and inflation worries are putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates across the G3, and these concerns are not going away anytime soon, see chart below.
The bottom line is that long-term interest rates are going to stay higher for longer and investors should plan accordingly.
Sources: US Department of Treasury, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill includes a Trump Account, which is a new tax‑advantaged, long‑term investment account created for children under 18. Accounts can be opened starting July 4, 2026. They are designed to help families build savings for a child’s future such as education, a first home or starting a business using tax‑deferred investment growth, see overview below.
Source: Apollo Chief Economist Explore the full 2026 Outlook, featuring our macro view and expert perspectives across regions and asset classes, at apollo.com/outlook.
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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