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The proportion of US households composed of a single individual continues to rise, see chart below.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Investment grade credit spreads are widening for hyperscalers and tightening for industrials, see chart below.
Note: 7 to 11 year maturity. Sources: ICE BofA Indices, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Stock prices of companies with negative earnings continue to outperform stock prices of companies with positive earnings, see chart below.
Note: Using Russell 2000 companies as of 2025 with trailing EPS, 1,120 companies have positive EPS, and 806 companies have negative EPS. Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Data from the Fed shows that lower-income households are experiencing higher inflation because their consumer spending baskets place greater weight on categories like rent, electricity, food, transportation and other necessities whose prices have risen faster.
Note: Inflation by income group is estimated by anchoring relative inflation differentials to US headline CPI (YoY). Monthly inflation gaps by income cohort are added to headline CPI inflation to recover implied inflation levels for the bottom 40%, middle 40%, and top 20% of households. Relative differences across income groups are preserved. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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US oil production has increased dramatically over the past 15 years (see the first chart), and most of the rise is used for exports (see the second chart).
Sources: Energy Institute, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Note: 2025 data are averages through November 2025. Sources: EIA, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The probability of a recession in 2026 continues to decline, see the first chart, and the consensus continues to revise up the growth forecast for the year, see the second chart.
Sources: Polymarket, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist 
Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio, also known as the Shiller P/E, is a stock market valuation measure that divides the current stock price by the average of the last 10 years’ inflation-adjusted earnings, thereby smoothing out business cycle volatility to assess long-term over/undervaluation and predict future returns. It provides a better gauge of sustainable earnings power than the traditional P/E ratio, which uses only one year’s earnings. The latest reading shows that equity valuations are near the highest levels since 1880, see chart below.
Sources: Robert Shiller, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Durable goods data shows that there is a capex boom underway in the US economy, see chart below, and the One Big Beautiful Bill is going to boost business fixed investment further over the coming quarters.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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In 2025, we worried that the trade war and immigration restrictions would lead to stagflation.
With those headwinds fading, the list of tailwinds keeps growing, and we are starting to worry about overheating in 2026.
The bottom line is that there are significant upside catalysts to growth and inflation over the coming quarters, see list of tailwinds below.
US economic outlook: 10 tailwinds in 2026
1. Trade war uncertainty fading
2. Strong AI and data center spending
3. High AI stock prices boosting wealth effects for consumers
4. Dollar depreciation
5. Falling oil prices
6. The Soccer World Cup
7. One Big Beautiful Bill eliminates federal income tax on overtime pay and tips
8. One Big Beautiful Bill increases the child tax credit to $2,200 dollars per child
9. One Big Beautiful Bill extends 100% expensing for equipment and factories to encourage capex and hiring
10. Tax refunds for households will be larger because the total tax liability for 2026 is lower
See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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We have updated our chart book documenting the extreme AI concentration within the S&P 500’s market cap, returns, earnings and capex. It is available here.
The bottom line is that investors in the S&P 500 remain overexposed to AI.
Sources: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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