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None of the indicators the NBER recession committee normally looks at suggest that we are in a recession at the moment, see chart below.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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USDJPY is highly correlated with the spread between 10-year interest rates in Japan and the US, and if the BoJ abandons YCC, then we could see a significant appreciation of the yen as Japanese investors move money back from the US and Europe to higher-yielding fixed income in Japan. With inflation in Japan sticky above the 2% inflation target, there is a significant risk that the BoJ could exit YCC within the next six months.
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, see chart below. New York is at 74% and Chicago is at 50% of 2019 levels. Boston is at 54% of pre-pandemic levels. This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.
Source: University of Toronto School of Cities, Apollo Chief Economist. The data compares Fall of 2022 (Sep to Nov) to Fall of 2019. For more see downtownrecovery.com. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Home prices are down more in Canada and Germany than in other G7 countries, see chart below.
Source: BIS, Canadian Real Estate Association, Eurostat, Eurospace, UK Land Registry, S&P Corelogic, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Counting how many times the words “inflation” and “banks” appear in the Fed’s Beige Book shows that the Fed is starting to focus more on banks and credit conditions and less on inflation, see charts below.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Apollo Chief Economist 
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The Fed is trying to slow down hiring to dampen the upward pressure on wage and consumer price inflation, but cooling down the labor market takes time, and while corporate worries about labor shortages have declined, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels, see chart below.
Source: Bloomberg/Michael McDonough, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Search includes earnings calls, conference presentation calls, shareholder management calls, guidance calls, M&A calls, and sales results calls. See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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US households are in excellent shape, the ratio of liabilities to net wealth has declined 50% since the 2008 financial crisis, and household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s, see chart below. If the unemployment rate rises, consumer spending will slow down, but the starting point for US households is very strong.
Source: FFUNDS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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The IMF is forecasting a recession in the UK and Germany, and close to potential growth in the US, which on its own would argue for a stronger dollar, see chart below.
Source: IMF WEO, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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Hotel demand has slowed down in recent weeks, occupancy rates, RevPAR, and daily rates have started moving lower, see chart below.
Source: STR, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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There are no signs of weakness in movie theater visits, the weekly data for box office grosses is rising and now above pre-pandemic levels, see chart below.
Source: Boxofficemojo.com, Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom of the page.
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