The Weekly Brief
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Labor Risks
Some leading indicators are potentially signaling that the labor market is on the cusp of slowing down.
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Default Cycle Begins
Data for leveraged loan default rates and bankruptcy filings show that a default cycle has started.
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Zero Percent Growth
The consensus expects essentially 0% growth in GDP and earnings over the next three quarters. We explore the implications…
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Measuring Unemployment
Jobless claims alone may not be a good reflection of what’s happening in the labor market. Learn more…
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Frozen Capital Markets
Capital markets activity has come to a standstill. The longer this shock persists, the greater the risk to the overall economy.
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Stability Risks
We expect the Fed to prioritize financial stability over inflation at their meeting this week.
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Labor Market Holds Strong
February’s employment report was stronger than expected—but did show some signs of cooling.
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Default Rates Normalizing
Rising interest rates are contributing to an uptick in defaults in auto loans and credit cards, but in the broader context these levels remain low. Learn more in the Weekly Brief.
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“No Landing” Continues
Persistent inflation combined with a strong economy likely means the Fed will need to step harder on the brakes.