The Weekly Brief
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Soft Landing Ahead?
For every month that inflation ticks lower and the economy holds strong, we get closer to a soft landing scenario.
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Economy Slowing Down
Daily and weekly high-frequency indicators are beginning to show signs of weakness in the US economy.
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Hawkish Fed Loop
As inflation falls, markets may turn bullish, which could result in a slower descent to the Fed’s 2% target.
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Wage Inflation Slowing
As wage inflation starts to moderate, the Fed may be in a position to be less hawkish in the months ahead. Learn more in the Weekly Brief.
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A New Narrative
The story in markets is evolving as we wrap up 2022 and head into the new year.
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Hiring continues
The US economy is still holding strong—particularly on the labor front—so we expect the Fed to remain hawkish.
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Broadway is Back
US consumers are flocking to experiences and services thanks, in part, to strong wage growth and high levels of savings.
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Descending the Mountain
History tells us that there’s a risk of a second inflation mountain ahead if the Fed turns dovish too quickly.