The Weekly Brief
We expect the Fed to prioritize financial stability over inflation at their meeting this week.
Labor Market Holds Strong
February’s employment report was stronger than expected—but did show some signs of cooling.
Default Rates Normalizing
Rising interest rates are contributing to an uptick in defaults in auto loans and credit cards, but in the broader context these levels remain low. Learn more in the Weekly Brief.
“No Landing” Continues
Persistent inflation combined with a strong economy likely means the Fed will need to step harder on the brakes.
We’re beginning to see confidence reemerge across a range of indicators. We explore the implications for markets in the Weekly Brief.
The risks are rising that inflation may become more persistent, which could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Labor Participation Rising
Increasing labor participation can help further dampen wage inflation, which is welcome news for the Federal Reserve.
Soft Landing Ahead?
For every month that inflation ticks lower and the economy holds strong, we get closer to a soft landing scenario.
Economy Slowing Down
Daily and weekly high-frequency indicators are beginning to show signs of weakness in the US economy.