The Weekly Brief

The Weekly Brief

  • Forecasting Inflation

    Forecasting Inflation

    Inflation remains stubbornly high and consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated its duration.

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  • When Will Inflation Clouds Clear?

    When Will Inflation Clouds Clear?

    With the Fed committed to lowering inflation, it’s not a question of if it will decline, it’s a question of when.

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  • Job Openings Drop

    Job Openings Drop

    The number of job openings in the US is starting to fall, but the labor market remains tight.

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  • Jobless Claims Still Falling

    Jobless Claims Still Falling

    The Fed would like to see softening in the labor market, but the data is telling a different story.

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  • A Rising Fed Funds Rate

    A Rising Fed Funds Rate

    The Fed has significantly changed their expectations on interest rates and the economic outlook since early last year.

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  • Hitting the Brakes

    Hitting the Brakes

    More aggressive action from the Federal Reserve could be on the horizon as inflation remains stubbornly high.

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  • Slowing Growth in Europe

    Slowing Growth in Europe

    Growth is slowing much faster in Europe than in the US. This could result in fewer rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

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  • Falling CEO confidence

    Falling CEO confidence

    CEO business confidence levels have fallen significantly, a trend that raises the risk of a hard landing.

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  • Declining Car Sales

    Declining Car Sales

    The overall economy remains strong, however cracks are appearing in interest-rate sensitive areas like housing and auto sales.

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