The Weekly Brief
-
Forecasting Inflation
Inflation remains stubbornly high and consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated its duration.
-
When Will Inflation Clouds Clear?
With the Fed committed to lowering inflation, it’s not a question of if it will decline, it’s a question of when.
-
Job Openings Drop
The number of job openings in the US is starting to fall, but the labor market remains tight.
-
Jobless Claims Still Falling
The Fed would like to see softening in the labor market, but the data is telling a different story.
-
A Rising Fed Funds Rate
The Fed has significantly changed their expectations on interest rates and the economic outlook since early last year.
-
Hitting the Brakes
More aggressive action from the Federal Reserve could be on the horizon as inflation remains stubbornly high.
-
Slowing Growth in Europe
Growth is slowing much faster in Europe than in the US. This could result in fewer rate hikes from the European Central Bank.
-
Falling CEO confidence
CEO business confidence levels have fallen significantly, a trend that raises the risk of a hard landing.
-
Declining Car Sales
The overall economy remains strong, however cracks are appearing in interest-rate sensitive areas like housing and auto sales.